Mortgage Market News for the week ending December 7, 2012.
Once again, investors mostly remained on the sidelines waiting for progress on the fiscal cliff talks and the European debt troubles. Headlines in these areas, along with Friday’s Employment report, caused daily volatility, but mortgage rates ended the week with little change.
Friday’s Employment data was stronger than expected. Against a consensus forecast of 90K, the economy added 146K jobs in November. Expected to increase to 8.0% from 7.9%, the Unemployment Rate decreased to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008. The decline was due to workers leaving the labor force, however, rather than job gains. Overall, investors feared weaker results, and the news was favorable for stocks and negative for bonds.
The last few weeks in December are traditionally a period marked by larger than usual price movements, due to thin trading volume. Usually the flow of news also winds down toward the end of the year. This year, however, there remain several major events which likely will have a significant impact on mortgage rates over the next few weeks, including a Fed meeting, the fiscal cliff talks, and deadlines on the Greek bailout. While there is no way to know what net effect these events will have on mortgage rates, it is reasonable to expect a high level of volatility.
Also Notable:
• ISM Manufacturing fell to the lowest reading since July 2009
• Consumer Sentiment dropped to the lowest level since August
• The Treasury will auction $66 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week
• The European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates
Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week: -0.10%
This week: +0.02%
Stocks (weekly):
Dow: 13,100 +100
NASDAQ: 2,975 -25
Week Ahead
The big story next week will be Wednesday’s Fed meeting. In particular, investors will be looking to see if the Fed will replace a Treasury bond purchase program which is due to expire at the end of the year. The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, Retail Sales will be released on Thursday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Industrial Production will come out on Friday. The Trade Balance and Import Prices will round out the schedule. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
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